Lubricants Market Morning Report20260729

Crude Oil Trend & Global Petro-Lubricant Weekly Brief

Crude Oil Price Performance (Jul 28)

WTI: USD 79.26/bbl, -4.06%

Brent Crude: USD 84.09/bbl, -4.83%

Two consecutive daily slumps driven by progress in US-Iran negotiations. Brent has tumbled 16.49% cumulatively in three days since Jul 24.

Global Market Updates

International Crude Plunges Over 4% on Jul 28; Brent Drops Below USD 85/bbl

WTI settled at USD 79.26/bbl (-4.06%) while Brent closed at USD 84.09/bbl (-4.83%). Brent lost 16.49% within three days from Jul 24 as market risk appetite rebounded.

Positive signals emerged from US-Iran diplomatic talks, lifting market expectations for resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Draft agreements to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz have been drawn up by both sides; markets are adopting a wait-and-see stance, stabilizing oil prices.

Domestic China Fuel Price Hike Expected on Jul 31 (Released Jul 29)

Forecast adjustment range: +760 ~ +850 RMB per metric ton for gasoline and diesel

• No.92 gasoline: +0.58 ~ 0.65 RMB per liter

• No.95 gasoline: +0.62 ~ 0.69 RMB per liter

Despite two straight days of sharp international crude declines, the earlier rally has lifted the 10-day moving average benchmark, locking in a retail fuel price increase effective midnight Jul 31.

Shanghai SC Crude Futures Fell 5.66% on Jul 28

SC main contract closed at 533.0 RMB/bbl with an intraday low of 531.3 RMB/bbl. Easing Middle East geopolitical tensions weighed on crude futures prices.

API SQ / ILSAC GF-7 New Standard Officially Implemented (Mar 31, 2025)

Released March 31, 2025, the new standard tightens requirements for engine wear protection, fuel efficiency and new-energy vehicle compatibility. ILSAC has also initiated development of the next GF-8 specification.

Industry News

Crackdown on Counterfeit Lubricants Launched in Two Regions (July)

• Baotou, Inner Mongolia: 3 stores sealed over suspected counterfeit lubricant products

• Cangzhou, Hebei: 6 distributors penalized for selling fake Mobil and Castrol lubricants

Indonesia to Fully Ban Diesel Imports Starting July 2026 (Released Jul 20)

The domestic B50 palm biodiesel program has achieved full commercialization, making Indonesia the world’s first mass producer of B50 fuel. The government has also rolled out E10 ethanol gasoline as a transition measure, with plans to lift ethanol blending ratio to E20 later.

Inflection Point for Data Center Coolant Industry (July)

Soaring demand fueled by AI computing infrastructure, alongside stricter PFAS regulatory curbs. With international brands exiting the market, supply gaps have emerged, accelerating localization of domestic liquid cooling formulations.

South America Market

Output Surge at Argentina’s Vaca Muerta Shale Play (July)

Argentina’s shale oil production expands rapidly, projected to hit 1 million barrels per day by 2030, overtaking Colombia to become South America’s 3rd largest crude producer.

Brazil Crude Output Rises 7% Month-on-Month (June)

Brazil’s daily crude production reached 3.66 million barrels in June, up 7% MoM. Booming output from Vaca Muerta fuels steady growth in regional lubricant consumption.

Africa Market

Nigeria Advances Target of 1 Million Barrels Per Day Output Growth (July)

NUPRC pushes forward the national production expansion plan. The Dangote Refinery—Africa’s largest refining complex—has commenced operation, reshaping regional refined oil supply landscape.

Egypt’s Oil Product Exports Hit USD 2.3 Billion in H1 2026 (Released Jul 26)

Local refinery utilization exceeds 110% of designed capacity. Monthly gasoline output increased by 45,000 metric tons, while domestic crude output hit a two-year high.

Russia & CIS Market

Russia Extends Gasoline Export Ban Until End-2026

Deputy PM Novak confirmed domestic fuel supply security remains top priority, with parallel extension of diesel export restrictions.

Lukoil Captures Over 40% Lubricant Market Share in CIS Region

Annual lubricant sales volume reaches 1.2 million metric tons.

South Asia Market

Bangladesh Lubricant Market Maintains Steady CAGR of 3–5% (July)

Bangladesh ranks as the world’s 6th largest edible oil consumer. The Dhaka Oil & Fat Expo will be held in November, attracting global lubricant brands amid high reliance on import supply.

India Becomes Swing Supplier of Refined Fuels

India diversifies LPG and crude import sources to cut reliance on the Persian Gulf amid US-Iran geopolitical tensions, hitting record refined product export volumes.

Malaysia & Singapore Bunker Fuel Market

Houthi threats to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait plus lingering shipping disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz sustain uncertainty over bunker fuel supply, keeping Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) prices firm.

Carriers including ONE, CMA CGM and Maersk have imposed emergency bunker surcharges of USD 75–150 per container, pushing up overall ocean freight costs.